WHAT WE SAID IN 2006by John Benson
WHAT WE SAID IN 2006
Here is our forecast versus actual stats for Frank Catalanotto in 2006:
Frank Catalanotto
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 56 7 56 1 .300
JB 06 Forecast 59 7 58 1 .299
The basis is the Standard Five categories used for player valuation.
Catalanotto did about the same in 2006 as he did in 2005, although in
three years before that he had ranged from 1 to 13 homers, from 27 to
83 in runs, from .269 to .299 in average, from 23 to 59 in RBI, and
0 to 15 in stolen bases, so it isn't as if he always does about the
same every year. Nonetheless Catalanotto was relatively easy. Most
players do about the same as they did the year before.
We don't get that close on every player. Following is a sampling of some
of our forecasts and comments on forecasts from 2006. This is not a
random sampling, although we did just go through the letters A, B, C,
D and E in the hitter population. If we went through all hitters and
all pitchers we could find more examples like Catalanotto. The truth
is, however, that such precision always involves an element of luck.
We just try to be accurate and get close enough to have a useful forecast
for every player. We do forecasts for about a thousand players or more every
year. If we were accurate with 95% of all players (which we are not) then there
would still be 50 players with inaccurate forecasts. And considering five
categories times a thousand players, we do five thousand forecasts every year.
What follows is probably enough to make the point: we seem to have a fair idea
of who is going to play and how well they will do.
Since the "up" or "down" players are more challenging than the Catalanotto
type of players, we are including some 2005 actual results for comparison
to 2006 actual results and for comparison to our forecasts and
comments. In addition to putting numbers out there, we discuss factors
that might cause a higher or lower performance.
Sources:
JB 06 Forecast = Draft Day Sheets in the Private Pages at johnbenson.com
and in the Draft Day edition of Benson's Forecast/Draft Software 2006.
RLB = Rotisserie League Baseball, book edited by John Benson
BBA = Benson's Baseball Annual
DS = Benson's Forecast/Draft Software 2006
Bob Abreu
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 98 15 107 30 .297
JB 06 Forecast 108 23 101 30 .290
Russ Adams
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 31 3 28 1 .219
2005 68 8 63 11 .256
BBA: "a popular projection as one of the best rookies of 2005. Those
projections ignored the fact that his [2004] production was not in
line with what he had done in the minors ... playing time could be
limited over the next few years if Aaron Hill can outperform Adams"
Manny Alexander
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 2 0 4 0 .176
JB 06 Forecast 0 0 0 0 .000
Edgardo Alfonzo
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 5 0 5 0 .126
2005 36 2 43 2 .277
RLB: "doesn't offer much more, especially not at this point of his
career. He has trouble with breaking pitches and has no home run
power at all ... has lost a step or two"
Sandy Alomar
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 8 1 17 0 .278
JB 06 Forecast 15 1 17 0 .246
RLB: "has little to offer at this point in his career. His offensive
skills have detgeriorated"
Moises Alou
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 52 22 74 2 .301
JB 06 Forecast 82 23 81 4 .296
2005 67 19 63 5 .321
BBA: "the Giants could have their best middle of the order duo
since Jeff Kent left town ... Alou missed 39 games last season
[2005] while posting the fifth highest slugging percentage of his career"
Brian N. Anderson
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 46 8 33 4 .225
JB 06 Forecast 57 10 53 8 .264
2005 3 2 3 1 .176
Garret Anderson
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 63 17 85 1 .280
JB 06 Forecast 59 15 82 2 .291
Garrett Atkins
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 117 29 120 4 .329
2005 62 13 89 0 .287
RLB: "a pure professional hitter. He shows good discipline and
handles himself well at the plate. He has a quick swing with
good strike zone coverage. He knows how to hit a ball where it's
pitched, and he uses all fields. A .317 career hitter in the minors"
Brad Ausmus
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 37 2 39 3 .230
JB 06 Forecast 37 4 42 4 .252
Jeff Baker
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 13 5 21 2 .368
JB 06 Forecast 13 3 15 1 .280
2005 6 1 4 0 .211
Rocco Baldelli
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 59 16 57 10 .302
JB 06 Forecast 81 16 81 20 .290
Rod Barajas
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 49 11 41 0 .256
JB 06 Forecast 50 20 61 0 .250
Josh Barfield
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 72 13 58 21 .280
JB 06 Forecast 63 12 71 10 .270
DS: DS: "Due for a Surge" List
Michael Barrett
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 54 16 53 0 .307
JB 06 Forecast 49 15 58 0 .276
Jason Bartlett
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 44 2 32 10 .309
JB 06 Forecast 43 4 22 6 .257
Jason Bay
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 101 35 109 11 .286
JB 06 Forecast 98 31 99 16 .300
David Bell
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 60 10 63 3 .270
JB 06 Forecast 48 10 55 0 .258
Mark Bellhorn
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 26 8 27 0 .190
JB 06 Forecast 34 6 28 2 .234
Ron Belliard
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 63 13 67 2 .272
JB 06 Forecast 69 14 69 3 .276
Carlos Beltran
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 127 41 116 18 .275
2005 83 16 78 17 .266
RLB "one of the most gifted all-around players in baseball. He can
hit for average and power, he has outstanding speed ... His greatest
problem is self-imposed pressure. There are times when he plays hurt
when he shouldn't and there are also times when he presses too much.
When Beltran presses, his production dips. When relaxed at the plate
he is one of the best in the game."
Adrian Beltre
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 88 25 89 11 .268
JB 06 Forecast 74 26 95 3 .272
Gary Bennett
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 13 4 22 0 .223
JB 06 Forecast 14 2 21 1 .224
Craig Biggio
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 79 21 62 3 .246
JB 06 Forecast 93 27 67 8 .259
Andres Blanco
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 9 0 9 0 .241
JB 06 Forecast 3 0 2 0 .243
Henry Blanco
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 23 6 37 0 .266
JB 06 Forecast 22 7 27 0 .222
Willie Bloomquist
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 36 1 15 16 .247
JB 06 Forecast 19 1 14 9 .253
Hiram Bocachica
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 3 0 0 1 .231
JB 06 Forecast 0 0 0 0 .000
Joe Borchard
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 33 10 28 0 .230
JB 06 Forecast 19 4 21 0 .234
2005 0 0 0 0 .417
Jason Botts
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 8 1 6 0 .220
JB 06 Forecast 11 2 11 0 .257
Milton Bradley
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 53 14 52 10 .276
JB 06 Forecast 70 18 60 10 .278
Ben Broussard
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 61 21 63 2 .289
JB 06 Forecast 57 18 69 3 .260
Emil Brown
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 77 15 81 6 .287
JB 06 Forecast 62 15 73 10 .266
Chris Burke
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 58 9 40 11 .276
JB 06 Forecast 55 6 31 13 .260
Pat Burrell
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 80 29 95 0 .258
JB 06 Forecast 77 30 107 1 .270
Eric Byrnes
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 82 26 79 25 .267
2005 49 10 40 7 .226
RLB: "reminiscent of Johnny Damon"
Miguel Cabrera
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 112 26 114 9 .339
JB 06 Forecast 107 34 116 3 .320
Orlando Cabrera
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 95 9 72 27 .282
JB 06 Forecast 74 10 61 20 .264
Mike Cameron
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 88 22 83 25 .268
JB 06 Forecast 72 22 67 20 .254
2005 47 12 39 13 .273
Robinson Cano
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 62 15 78 5 .342
JB 06 Forecast 98 16 81 4 .291
DS: "Due for a Surge" List
Jose Castillo
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 54 14 65 6 .253
JB 06 Forecast 66 15 71 5 .274
Luis Castillo
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 84 3 49 25 .296
JB 06 Forecast 85 4 38 10 .290
Juan Castro
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 18 3 28 1 .251
JB 06 Forecast 32 5 33 1 .252
Ramon Castro
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 13 4 12 0 .238
JB 06 Forecast 18 6 27 1 .226
Frank Catalanotto
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 56 7 56 1 .300
JB 06 Forecast 59 7 58 1 .299
Ronny Cedeno
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 51 6 41 8 .245
JB 06 Forecast 76 9 45 12 .276
2005 13 1 6 1 .300
DS: "Due for a Surge" List
Shin-soo Choo
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 23 3 22 5 .280
JB 06 Forecast 13 2 10 3 .266
2005 1 0 1 0 .056
DS: "Due for a Surge" List
Jeff Cirillo
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 33 3 23 1 .319
JB 06 Forecast 19 2 15 2 .259
JD Closser
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 10 2 11 0 .196
JB 06 Forecast 9 2 8 0 .248
Alex Cora
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 31 1 18 6 .238
JB 06 Forecast 16 2 16 3 .247
Shane Costa
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 23 3 23 2 .274
JB 06 Forecast 15 2 8 1 .273
Craig Counsell
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 56 4 30 15 .255
JB 06 Forecast 72 6 33 22 .251
Carl Crawford
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 89 18 77 58 .305
JB 06 Forecast 105 16 73 44 .310
BBA and DS: "Age 26 and Under With Experience" List
Mike Cuddyer
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 102 24 109 6 .284
2005 55 12 42 3 .263
RLB: "Cuddyer is still developing as a hitter ... he has a prototype right fielder's arm."
DS: "Due for a Surge" List
Jeff Davanon
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 38 5 35 10 .290
JB 06 Forecast 41 5 23 13 .243
David DeJesus
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 83 8 56 6 .295
JB 06 Forecast 79 13 60 9 .298
Carlos Delgado
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 89 38 114 0 .265
JB 06 Forecast 87 35 118 0 .285
Dave Dellucci
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 41 13 39 1 .292
JB 06 Forecast 54 14 41 5 .239
2005 97 29 65 5 .251
Chris Denorfia
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 14 1 7 1 .283
JB 06 Forecast 11 2 10 1 .244
Adam Dunn
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 99 40 92 7 .234
JB 06 Forecast 107 43 101 5 .251
Damion Easley
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 24 9 28 1 .233
JB 06 Forecast 31 8 32 4 .237
Edwin Encarnacion
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 60 15 72 6 .276
JB 06 Forecast 75 20 82 11 .270
2005 25 9 31 3 .232
DS: "Due for a Surge" List
Juan Encarnacion
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 74 19 79 6 .278
JB 06 Forecast 67 17 80 8 .270
Andre Ethier
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 50 11 55 5 .308
RLB: "Before 2005, Ethier was a line drive hitter with a little power. But his
strength increased last year [2005] with maturity and experience."
Sal Fasano
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 12 5 15 0 .217
JB 06 Forecast 23 5 18 0 .238
2005 25 11 20 0 .250
Pedro Feliz
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 75 22 98 1 .244
JB 06 Forecast 70 21 84 2 .257
Robert Fick
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 14 2 9 1 .266
JB 06 Forecast 8 2 12 0 .256
2005 25 3 30 0 .265
Prince Fielder
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 82 28 81 7 .271
2005 2 2 10 0 .288
DS: "Due for a Surge" List
RLB: "one of baseball's best young power prospect. Fielder has excellent mechanics,
great power and poise, and he has a better knowledge of the strike zone than his daddy ...
should make an impact in the majors this year."
Cliff Floyd
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 45 11 44 6 .244
2005 85 34 98 12 .273
RLB: "his legs may not hold up much longer"
Julio Franco
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 14 2 26 6 .273
JB 06 Forecast 18 5 26 2 .289
2005 30 9 42 4 .275
Jeff Francoeur
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 83 29 103 1 .260
2005 41 14 45 3 .300
DS: "Due for a Surge" List
Ryan Freel
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 67 8 27 37 .271
JB 06 Forecast 83 5 28 37 .274
Rafael Furcal
RUN HR RBI SB AVG
2006 113 15 63 37 .300
JB 06 Forecast 102 13 58 38 .283
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