Do you remember the most exciting, attention-getting minor league hitters of 1996? Following are ten of the best:

Andruw Jones: .347 average, 34 home runs, 92 RBI (Class A, AA and AAA)
Vladimir Guerrero: .361 average, 24 home runs, 96 RBI (Class A and AA)
Derrek Lee: .280 average, 34 home runs and 104 RBI (Double-A)
Ron Wright: 36 home runs and 114 RBI (Class A and AA)
Dmitri Young: .333 average, 15 home rune, 64 RBI (Triple-A)
Todd Walker: .339 average, 28 home runs, 111 RBI (Triple-A)
Yamil Benitez: .278 average, 23 home runs, 81 RBI (Triple-A)
Mike Cameron: .300 average, 28 home runs, 77 RBI (Double-A)
Todd Dunwoody: .277 average, 24 home runs, 93 RBI (Double-A)
Paul Konerko: 30 home runs and 88 RBI (Double-A and Triple-A)

All of these players did very well, but none of their marks had a luster that would last for decades. Indeed, minor league performances like these come along every year, year after year.

Obviously, a player doesn't have to put up huge statistics to raise high expectations. The above names are the cream of the 1997 crop. What would the scouts and media think of a player who hit, say 46 homers, and 141 RBI, with a .333 batting average at Triple-A level, and in a league and year noted for good pitching? Such numbers would create unimaginable excitement!

Not long ago in baseball history, a young and improving slugger named Ken Phelps had these remarkable numbers. In 1982, he hit .333, smashed 46 homers, and drove in 141 runs. And yet these huge statistics were largely ignored at the time. In the early 1980's, nobody paid much attention to minor league numbers. Conventional wisdom, based on a hundred years of collective thinking was that minor league stats are all misleading; the parks are too small, the pitchers can't throw strikes, and nobody has a good curveball in the minors.

Phelps put up his Ruthian numbers in the Triple-A American Association, a league known for good pitching. Phelps had to face pitchers like Bud Black, who had a 2.48 ERA that year. Bryn Smith, one of Phelps' teammates, had a 1.90 ERA (in exactly the same ballparks where Phelps played). Ken Phelps really did have a monster season in 1982.

Phelps finally got promoted to the major leagues, but never got a chance to play full time. The most at-bats he ever had in a season was 344, in 1986. Remarkably, he still produced 24 to 27 homers every year from 1983 through 1988, except for 1985 when he got a paltry 116 at bats. Phelps finished his career with more than one home run for every 15 at bats, equal to Mickey Mantle and Jimmy Foxx in home run ratio, and ahead of Lou Gehrig, Henry Aaron and Willie Mays.

The New (Ir)Relevance Of Statistics

The increased scrutiny of minor league numbers has pushed their perceived importance all the way to the opposite end of the spectrum. Today, no player would be allowed to accumulate 46 home runs in a single minor league season; he would keep getting promoted and promoted until he reached the major leagues, and his minor league total would truncate. The last player to make a serious run at the mid-40 home run mark was Jose Canseco in 1989; he had 25 at Double-A, 11 more at Triple-A, and then got promoted to the majors where he collected five more. Todd Greene getting exactly 40 at two minor league levels in 1995 was even something of an oddity; if he had been an outfielder instead of a catcher in a franchise with enough major league catchers, there likely would have been a major league roster spot for Greene earlier.

Today, the "science" of finding each year's top rookies, before the season starts, has become a mania. Spring training magazines commonly give their covers -- and consistently give lots of content -- to tabbing last year's top minor leaguers and projecting which ones will be this year's best rookies. There are numerous tools for fans who spend their winters on the peach- fuzz watch.

My advice is to spend less time crunching numbers and poring over statistical tables, and spend more time studying managerial style and thinking about which teams actually have job openings. Too often, people focused just on the numbers come up with names like Rolando Roomes and Skeeter Barnes, when they want a Canseco or McGwire.

Study Managerial Tendencies

The many managerial changes for 1997 will lead to many personnel changes. Mets manager Bobby Valentine has two qualities favoring youngsters: an inclination toward newcomers that he showed during his years with the Texas Rangers, and also lengthy exposure to his current crop of youngsters, many of whom he managed at Triple-A Norfolk on the Mets' farm last summer.

Managers disclose their styles in the teams they put on the field. Don't listen to what they say; watch what they do.

Look For Room On The Major League Roster

Many fine players get stuck in log jams for years. Atlanta's outfield superprospect Geronimo Berroa grew old trying to break into an outfield competing with newcomers named Ron Gant and Davis Justice. Berroa's minor league stats showed clearly that he could hit 25 homers with 90 RBI in the majors -- and I was writing that back in 1991 -- but that potential didn't do him a lot of good in Richmond. Slugger Tino Martinez, when he was with Seattle, had to wait for Alvin Davis and Pete O'Brien to move aside.

Beware Of The Doghouse

Baseball Is Show Business

And Don't Forget Statistical Anomalies

One of the easiest sanity checks on a minor league performance is a quick glance at team totals. All of the ballpark effects, altitudes, weird weather and whatever else you want to factor out, will be spread uniformly among players on the same roster.

Major League Stats Are The Best Indicators After All

Part Two: Relative Production Potential
By Tony Blengino

In late 1993, Tony Blengino sent me the following list of "Top Minor Leaguers" which I published in my Baseball Monthly. When you see these names, you will understand immediately why I got interested in Tony's methods, and why I have been eager to see his list every year since:

1. Cliff Floyd
2. Jim Thome
3. Manny Ramirez
4. Carlos Delgado
5. Roberto Petagine
6. Chipper Jones
7. Arquimedez Pozo
8. Tony Tarasco
9. Roger Cedeno
10. Dmitri Young

There were plenty of other "top ten" lists floating around during the winter of 1993-94, but none that worked out any better than this list. All of the 1993 Top Ten spent part of 1996 in the majors, and all should have a material big league role in 1997.

Following are Tony's notes on his methods, including his latest Top Ten. His lists go 250 deep into the minor league population every year, forming one of the many noteworthy features in the annual book, Future Stars - The Minor League Abstract, available from Diamond Library.

With further ado, here's Tony ...

Once again, it is time for my annual foray into the field of statistical evaluation of minor league hitting prospects using the Relative Production Potential method. Most other prospect lists that you will see tend to rely either upon raw athletic tools, or upon traditional, politically correct statistics, such as batting average, home runs and RBI. Most other methods tend to underestimate the role of a prospect's age when determining his long-term potential.

Yes, Relative Production Potential (RPP) is all about statistics; but it's about the "right" statistics. It's about the two true measures of offensive performance: on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The method adjusts for league context, measuring all players' performance relative to their league. Therefore, a massive offensive season as measured in traditional numbers in the pitcher-dominated High-A Carolina League carries more weight than a similar campaign in the hitting-crazy Triple-A Pacific Coast League. The RPP method also adjusts for a prospect's age in relation to his level, weeding out all of the Phil Hiatts and Dale Sveums who create the illusion that they are long-term major league prospects with their pounding of minor league hurlers. The end result is an ordered list of 273 minor leaguers who established some level of expected major league production based upon their 1996 minor league performance.

The method has four years under its belt now, and even if I do say so myself, the results have been pretty darn impressive. Virtually all of the Top Ten alumni have made major league appearances or remain solid prospects. Only one, 1994 number eight ranked Gator McBride of the Braves, appears to have faded as a major league prospect. It must be emphasized that this method does not purport to project which players will have the most major league impact in 1997; it measures long-term potential.

The 1996 Top Ten include four players who made their major league debuts in 1996, though all four retain Rookie of the Year eligibility for 1997. The other six have never played in the majors, and have combined for a total of 14 Triple-A at bats. Three of them have never even played at the Double-A level.

This method has proven to be quite effective at unearthing minor league prospects very early in their careers 17-year-old Edgar Renteria batted all of .203 in 1993, but made the list because of his youth. Not many people were aware of Royals catcher Mike Sweeney at this time last year, but he ranked number seven on this list, just behind a guy named Andruw Jones. This method heralded Alex Rodriguez as a god last year. Everyone knew he would be a star, but in last year's article, we compared him to Honus Wagner based on his phenomenal RPP score. Other players who ranked highly in last year's analysis who largely escaped mainstream baseball media attention were Richard Almanzar, Ron Wright, Russell Branyan, Fernando Tatis and Wes Helms. You've probably heard of some of those guys by now.

Also, one can get a feel for the overall offensive depth of the respective minor league organizations by calculating cumulative RPP scores. Those results are always good for a few surprises.

Methods

Each player's OBP and SLG is then compared to the average of all the qualifiers in his league. Each player is awarded points equal to the number of standard deviations above or below the average of all of his league's qualifiers. For instance, Chad Hermansen of the Low-A Augusta Greenjackets had an on-base percentage 0.96 standard deviations above the average of his league's qualifiers, and a slugging percentage 1.98 standard deviations above the average of his league's qualifiers. Adding 0.96 and 1.98 gives Hermansen an unadjusted RPP score of 2.94, which is well above average.

For each minor league, the sum of all OBP and SLG factors is zero. This enables hitters' leagues to be fairly compared to pitchers' leagues. Braves' third baseman Wes Helms (.352 OBP, .562 SLG) had very similar statistics to A's shortstop Tony Batista (.368 OBP, .561 SLG). However, Helms posted his numbers in the High-A Carolina League, much less conducive to hitting than Batista's Triple-A Pacific Coast League. Therefore, Helms' unadjusted RPP was higher, by 2.79 to 2.26.

After calculating unadjusted RPP for all minor league qualifiers, the population of top minor league prospects is assembled. At this point, a prospect's age is compared to the "optimal" age for his minor league level. For Triple-A, the optimal age is 22, for Double-A 21, for High-A 20, and for Low-A 19.

First, all starters who were at or below their level's optimal age (July 4 cutoff date) are placed in the prospect pool. Next, all players who were one year above optimal age and had positive unadjusted RPP scores are added. Then, all players who were two years above optimal age, and had unadjusted RPP of at least 1.00 are added. Finally, all players who were three years above optimal age and had unadjusted RPP of at least 2.00 are added. The pool is now full - 273 players qualified in 1996, well down from the 1995 total of 300. There were noticeably fewer top young offensive prospects in Low-A ball in 1996 as compared to 1995. The pool includes players who performed at very high offensive levels, but also many who did not, but were among the youngest prospects in their leagues.

Each of the 273 qualifying prospects' RPP scores is then adjusted for age. For each year younger than his level's optimal age, a player's RPP is increased by 1.00; for each year older than his league's optimal age, a player's RPP is decreased by 1.00. Hermansen, for example, received a positive 1.00 age adjustment for his Low-A performance at Augusta at age 18. This process can bring together two seemingly starkly different seasons. Dodgers' Triple-A second baseman Wilton Guerrero, 21, had an unadjusted RPP of 1.28, adjusted upward by 1.00 to 2.28, ranking him 33rd overall. Meanwhile, Indians' Low-A outfielder Scott Morgan, 22, went on a season-long power rampage, and posted an unadjusted RPP of 5.29. However, his negative 3.00 age adjustment dropped his adjusted RPP to 2.29, ranking him just ahead of Guerrero, and 32nd overall.

The 1996 Results

The Top Two are no brainers, and are repeaters from last year's Top Ten. Andruw Jones moved from number six to number one. He lambasted three different levels on his from the Carolina League to the majors (as a teenager) in 1996. His relatively brief Tour de Force (.432 OBP, .675 SLG, 23 extra base hits in 157 at bats) at Double-A Greenville earned him the top ranking - and his earlier blitz of the High-A Carolina League earned him the number two ranking! Jones is ready to dominate at the major league level. The Braves should move David Justice and/or Jermaine Dye, and let Jones get on with his Hall of Fame career. As he did in the Low-A South Atlantic League in 1995, the Expos' Vladimir Guerrero played second fiddle to Jones on the RPP list in 1996. Guerrero flirted with a .400 average for much of the season as the youngest regular in the Double-A Eastern League, carrying Harrisburg to the championship. He has equally impressive on-base (2.40 unadjusted RPP) and slugging (2.43 unadjusted RPP) skills, and should be a fixture in the number three spot in the Expos' lineup for years to come. Phils' third baseman Scott Rolen finished fourth on the strength of his first half performance at Double-A Reading, where he posted a .443 on-base percentage and .587 slugging percentage. He isn't your basic, Mike Schmidt 40-homer pounder, but will be a .300 hitter in the majors with 40 double, 25 home run power. All three are also excellent defensively - Jones, Guerrero and Rolen should duke it out for the NL Rookie of the Year Award (Rolen is still eligible - by one at bat - the one in which he was hit by a pitch, breaking his arm, and ending his season.)

The one American League player in the Top Ten who saw major league action in 1996 was Red Sox' shortstop Nomar Garciaparra, who finished fifth. He made this list last year on the strength of his relative youth; he did not develop as a hitter until 1996. He lost a chunk of 1996 due to a knee injury, but posted a .390 on-base percentage and an impressive .728 slugging percentage, at Triple-A Pawtucket. He will be the Red Sox' shortstop in 1997, and is the odds-on frontrunner for the AL Rookie of the Year Award. Power, speed and defense in abundance. The era of the shortstop continues.

The only other member of the 1996 Top Ten to see the light of Triple-A, for all of 14 at bats, was number seven Paul Konerko of the Dodgers. The former catcher was shifted to first base to hasten his arrival in the majors. As the youngest player in the Double-A Texas League, he posted a .395 OBP and .532 SLG, as its youngest regular. He will be ready for the majors by 1998, though the Dodgers are known for keeping even their best prospects in Triple-A for two years. He will immediately present himself as at least a reasonable facsimile of Eric Karros. By season's end, two other members of the Top Ten had graduated to Double-A.

Number six Mario Valdez of the White Sox is by far the most unheralded member of the Top Ten. The first baseman was a lowly 48th round draft and follow pick in the 1993 draft, and began his 1996 season at Low-A South Bend, where he earned a two-level promotion with a .376 average, with 19 doubles, 10 homers and 36 walks in only 202 at bats. He was the only member of the Top Ten to receive a negative age adjustment to his RPP score - at 21, he was two years older than the optimal Low-A age. He handled the aggressive jump extremely well, batting .274 with only doubles power, but with great patience (32 walks in 200 plate appearances). Considering his lack of home run power coupled with Frank Thomas' presence in front of him, Valdez bears close scrutiny in 1997 to see which way his career goes.

Number Ten Ron Wright began the season as one of the four top Braves' prospects (along with Andruw Jones, Wes Helms and Damian Moss) promoted together from High-A Durham to Double-A Greenville. He qualified based on his .372 OBP, .604 SLG performance at High-A Durham. He ended the year as an ex-Brave, as he was traded to the Pirates in the Denny Neagle deal. Wright is a squat (6'0", 215) yet powerfully built first baseman who generates awesome power from gap to gap. He's a year away from the majors. He might not be a future All Star, but should be a 25-30 homer force in the bigs.

The other three prospects have never played above Class A ball, so one might consider them far from the majors. One must then consider, however, that a couple of guys named Jones and Guerrero fit neatly into this category just one year ago. Dodgers' third baseman Adrian Beltre emerged from out of nowhere to claim the number three ranking in 1996 based on his .394 OBP, .586 SLG performance at Low-A Savannah, at the tender age of 18. This earned him a promotion to High-A San Bernardino in the California League, where he was by far the youngest player. He held his own there, nailing 40% of his hits for extra bases. Once he learns to take close pitches, Beltre will be unstoppable. He also features a well above average glove. Beltre is a future major impact player at the big league level.

Expos' shortstop Hiram Bocachica finished ninth in RPP despite an elbow injury which relegated him to designated hitter duty for most of the season. Bocachica is a natural top of the order hitter, combining excellent on-base skills (.412 OBP) with blazing speed and above average pop (.461 SLG) for a middle infielder. If he can make up for lost time defensively, he should be the Expos' shortstop by mid-1998. He, too, is a likely future major league All Star. Along with Beltre, Pirates' shortstop Chad Hermansen became the only 18-year-old to dent High-A ball in 1996. Unlike fellow shortstop Bocachica, Hermansen doesn't possess top-of-the-order skills befitting a middle infielder - he's a banger. He posted a .360 OBP and .513 SLG at Low-A Augusta, and was only slightly less effective at High-A Lynchburg. The only question - at 6'2", 185, and growing, will he outgrow shortstop? Regardless, Hermansen will be a dominant offensive performer in the majors, likely by 1999.

Of the 1995 Top Ten, number ten Alex Rodriguez exceeded even the loftiest expectations, while number seven Mike Sweeney and number ten Johnny Damon were starting regularly for the Royals by year-end. Number three Ruben Rivera, number six Andruw Jones, number eight Darin Erstad, and number nine Vladimir Guerrero all made major league appearances, and remain stud prospects. Number two Karim Garcia was sent down to Double-A, largely for motivational reasons; he ranked number 13 in 1996, and remains a star prospect. Number four Jose Valentin dropped off somewhat from his 1995 level, but clearly looms as the Twins' catcher of the future. However, number five Steve Gibralter had a poor season at Triple-A in the Reds' organization, and is no longer a sure bet to earn a major league starting job.

Of the 1994 Top Ten, number one Alex Rodriguez, number four Shawn Green, number six Carlos Delgado, number seven Marc Newfield and number ten Ernie Young are entrenched as major league regulars, while ninth-ranked Billy Ashley remains a backup major league outfielder. 1994's number two Jeff Abbott, number three Karim Garcia, and number five Bob Abreu remain top prospects, while number eight Gator McBride of the Braves appears to be headed towards obscurity.

All of the 1993 Top Ten spent part of 1996 in the majors, and all should have a material big league role in 1997. In order, they were Cliff Floyd, Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Delgado, Roberto Petagine, Chipper Jones, Arquimedez Pozo, Tony Tarasco, Roger Cedeno and Dmitri Young. All in all, a pretty fair track record, which shouldn't be impacted negatively by the 1996 group.

Summary